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This is a collection of interesting quotes
A car that does not have self driving in the future will be as powerful as horses. Horses are still horses, people still have horses, but this is not what you use on a day to day transport.
Elon Musk Interview: 1-on-1 with Sandy Munro Recorded 02.02.2021 at Minute 47:13
Life shrinks and expands on the proportion of your willingness to take risks and try new things.
If you really look closely, most overnight successes took a long time.
The best way to predict the future, is to invent it.
The products errors reflect the organisational errors.
Laws and rules
Adding manpower to a even late software project makes it later.
Any organization that designs a system (defined broadly) will produce a design whose structure is a copy of the organization’s communication structure.
The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not to increase. Over the longer term, the rate of increase is a bit more uncertain, although there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years.
Moore’s Law is being replaced by Neven’s Law. Neven’s law is named after Hartmut Neven, the director of Google’s Quantum Artificial Intelligence Lab. Hartmut has stated that the growth in power with each new improvement to Google’s best quantum processor is growing at not just an exponential rate, like in Moore’s Law, but at a doubly-exponential rate.
‘Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes,’ professor Charlie Goodhart said in 1975: in other words, if you set targets to try and make something good happen, people will find a way to hit the targets without improving anything, rendering the whole exercise pointless.
Goodhart’s law (e.g. Google: when it used incoming links in PageRank to make search more useful, spammers set up link farms and spammy blogs to artificially inflate their sites’ PageRank)
Fitts’s Law is crucial to user interface design, from touchscreen apps to the buttons on a website. Paul Fitts studied human-computer interaction and found that the time it takes to move and click on something is a function of how far away it is and how big it is.
Smartphones are particularly good places to see it in action – some sites’ navigation is effectively unusable on small screens, while on-screen keyboards in iOS invoke Fitts’s Law by trying to predict what character you’ll go for next and making its tappable area larger.
The late Roy Amara was a scientist and president of the Institute for the Future, a Californian think tank, and his Law encourages us to think long term about new technology: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” The online reaction to Apple products tends to illustrate both bits of Amara’s Law beautifully.
Eroom’s law is a pharmaceutical drug development observation which states that the cost of developing a new drug roughly doubles every nine years.
Engelbart’s law is the observation that the intrinsic rate of human performance is exponential.
Anything that can go wrong will go wrong.
Metcalfe’s law (e.g. network effects of every platform, e.g. YouTube, Instagram, TikTok, Apple devices, Amazon, Netflix, Disney+, Tesla Superchargers, E-Mail,…)
The rule of thirds is a ‘rule of thumb’ or guideline which applies to the process of composing visual images such as designs, films, paintings, and photographs.
Rule of thirds